Yep, I think this year will obviously see a sharp rise in Jackson's posthumous earning power but I don't think his legacy is sustainable in the way that Elvis's is, for reasons which I've already raised on other MJ-related threads here.
One of the main reasons is that there's just a lot less product to peddle in terms of recorded material. Elvis's catalogue of music and film is vast compared to Jackson's and any rumors you've heard about vaults full of Thriller-standard Jacko music have to be absolute nonsense. Sure, there will probably be some decent unfinished tracks which are no-doubt being hastily shopped around marketable collaborators for remixing as I write, but if they were in such great supply and presentable form, then rest assured you would have heard them already- Sony
do actually want to make back some of the fortune they spent on the guy in recent years and they haven't been waiting for him to
die to do it, all cynicism aside.
Also, Elvis's ability to crossover markets is greater than Jackson's. As an interpretive singer, Elvis took pride in his adaptability of style and breadth of range as he tackled material from a huge variety of sources throughout his career. By contrast the adult Jackson was a relative one-trick-pony, albeit an instantly-recognizable and brilliant trick, depending upon how much you appreciate breathy squeaks and ubiquitous "
hee-heeee"s. This might not seem that important, but when you consider the manner in which expired vocalists' performances are sold and consumed in recent years, often alongside a current artist in a completely different audio environment than the original recording, then Elvis' flexibility becomes an attractive asset. I'm not saying that posthumous collaborations aren't available to Michael, only that they're just as limited as his back-catalogue.
Speaking of which, most people who weren't
massive fans, but still liked Michael enough to not be put off by the child-molestation allegations, bought his 2003 'Number Ones' package at the time, and the ones who didn't acquired the content shortly after discovering he was dead, so that's a massive potential market who've already shot-their-bolt as far as his
sales of existing music is concerned for quite a while. Of course music can be 'sold' in different ways- we'll get around to that later.
As for the child-molestation itself, while he was never actually convicted of such a thing, and the majority 'on the fence' about his alleged guilt have adopted a selective amnesia for the purpose of his mourning, I suspect that this is a temporary atmosphere of clemency. Now that the funereal circus is over, there is already a kind of stunned apathy emerging which is likely to give way to the same old misgivings about his suspected guilt. Except worse, because people are beginning to feel guilty
themselves for eulogizing him. That really doesn't bode well for long-term marketability. You only have to talk to the man in the street.
This unfortunate association originally kept product endorsements at bay and Jackson almost completely off the radio for years, so in the obvious absence of any forthcoming live appearances, and most domestic music consumers already in possession of any tracks which they were ever likely to buy, the salability of his music is greatly compromised, despite any residual acceptance while he isn't presenting any immediate threat to children(!)
Remember, from a 'profile' perspective, Michael's alleged child-abuse has been more
relevant than his music since
1993. That's almost the duration of the entire second half of his solo career.
If Graceland relied exclusively upon hardcore Elvis fans to make up it's attendance figures it probably would have closed years ago. It remains one of the most successful tourist attractions of all time because there's something about Elvis which appeals even to those who aren't yet fully initiated. At the very least, even non-fans can say they've visited the famous home of the world's original pioneer of popular music. Compare this to the Jacko connotations which almost prohibit his
music from a significant proportion of the people who actually
like it. Who wants to say they visited 'the infamous suspected crime-scene of the world's highest-profile alleged pedophile'? I really don't see Neverland replicating Graceland's enduring success, since even a faction of his most stalwart fans consider it his nemesis.
Plans for releasing footage of the
This Is It rehearsals have a limited shelf-life of profitability, since the sequences were not intended for public consumption and therefore deliberately 'underperformed' to conserve what remained of Jackson's energy for the actual shows. After the initial morbid curiosity has been satisfied, there is unlikely to be a lucrative long-term appeal to the content. We're not talking about the
Comeback Special or
Aloha here. It's going to be hard enough to
package it, never mind
re-package it!
For what it's worth, I thought Michael Jackson was an amazing artist and I always had serious doubts about his guilt, but the question here is about his posthumous earning potential, and this is what we have to work with. Especially while he doesn't own the exclusive rights on sales of sequined gloves and fedora hats.